Tropical wave heading toward Caribbean, 50% chance of development

  • Tropical wave heading toward Caribbean, 50% chance of development

Tropical wave heading toward Caribbean, 50% chance of development

This disturbance has been battling strong upper-level winds for the past couple days, but it'll be moving northwestward into a better environment this week and the National Hurricane Center has a 70% of development over the next five days.

If it does strengthen, the storm could then move westward toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before turning north. The next name up in this year's storm name rotation is Patty.

According to records from 1851 to 2015, there have been 1619 tropical storms and 991 hurricanes.

Designated Invest 96-L, the system was about 350 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands Sunday morning.

The Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency said in a release today that it's monitoring the system.

The system, which has surfaced just over two weeks before the end of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season - which runs June 1 to November 30 - is located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean.

"In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin thus far in 2018 has been above normal".

Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle on November 20, 1985, with 120 mph winds; Wrong Way Lenny nailed the northern Antilles with 150 mph winds on November 17, 1999; and most famously, Mitch belted Honduras with 180 mph winds on October 25, 1998. That's the most likely time for tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes to form.