NOAA ups tropical forecast, sees more storms this hurricane season

  • NOAA ups tropical forecast, sees more storms this hurricane season

NOAA ups tropical forecast, sees more storms this hurricane season

Forecasters are predicting a more active end to what has been a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Initially, they predicted nine to 15.

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have increased their forecast for an above-normal hurricane season. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.

So far this season, subtropical storm Andrea dissipated before making landfall in May, while Hurricane Barry hit Louisiana as a Category 1 in July.

The most recent outlook for the 2019 hurricane season includes 10 to 17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, or storm systems that contain wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

"We expect El Niño impacts to progressively fade as we go through the season", said Bell in a media call.

The updated 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook.

These new predictions come with the end of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which "typically suppresses" hurricane activity in the Atlantic, according to NOAA.

Colorado State forecasters say the eastern tropical Atlantic is cooler than normal, while the central tropical Atlantic is slightly warmer than normal.

Two named storms already have formed this season.

“If a tropical system approaches our area, it will have an increased heat source to aid in intensifying the system — remembering that this is only one ingredient in the recipe of tropical system evolution.”.

'NOAA will continue to deliver the information that the public depends on before, during and after any storms throughout the hurricane season, ' said acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs.

Both NOAA and Colorado State University forecasters added the caveat that it is impossible to know how the season will unfold, despite improved sophistication in weather modelling.

Whether or not a hurricane actually makes landfall is primarily determined by short-term weather patterns - which can only be predicted within around a week of the storm potentially reaching a coastline.