US Elections: Referendum on Trump’s presidency? - Rabobank

  • US Elections: Referendum on Trump’s presidency? - Rabobank

US Elections: Referendum on Trump’s presidency? - Rabobank

One day before the midterm elections, polls indicate Donald Trump's Republican stranglehold on Congress is in for a major shake up, as the president responds to bleak results with fear and loathing.

However, thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday along the eastern coast, as well as snowstorms in the Midwest, which could affect turnout.

At every rally, Trump has vowed to his chanting supporters they will "win, win, win".

"Later this evening, the President and First Lady have invited family and friends to join them in the residence as they watch election returns".

Winning control of the House would allow the Democrats to block Republican policies, launch investigations into Trump's administration and instigate impeachment proceedings.

This eight point difference between them could well hand Democrats the House. "It's an awakening of the Democratic Party".

It appears likely that the 2018 midterm elections will see the Democrats win the House and the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Perhaps more important, they would claim subpoena power to investigate Trump's personal and professional shortcomings. He is bombarding the voters with tweets and speeches that make out the caravan as a bunch of criminals who threaten the safety of the United States, with particular emphasis on the welfare of women.

Democrats are drawing strength from women and college-educated voters, who swung decidedly against Trump since his election.

Democrats boast record diversity on the ballot.

"The Democrats will do quite well in the House of Representatives, in the governorships and state legislatures".

Voters will also cast ballots in 36 governor races and many local and state elections. "They've really become radicalised". "You're going to see the largest gender gap we've ever seen".

Even veteran observers of USA campaigns find it all a little bewildering. The demographic shifts also reflect each party's closing argument.

The US president has framed migrant caravans approaching through Central America as an existential crisis for country, calling it an "invasion" and dispatching more than 5,000 soldiers to the border.

Democrats, meanwhile, have beat their drum on health care.

Former President Barack Obama - on the campaign trail for the Democratic party - said earlier on Monday that "the character of our country is on the ballot". "Health care for millions of people".

He added: "You're going out there, you're going to make sure that people vote to start making things better".

Tuesday's results will be colored by the dramatically different landscapes in the fight for the House and Senate.

Trump echoed what he's been saying for weeks as he stumps for Republican candidates for the House, Senate and governor's mansions: Democrats will throw America in reverse.

Trump began last week to warn that a loss might be coming, suggesting it would not be a big problem: "My whole life, you know what I say?" I think we're doing very well in the Senate. "The press is very much considering it a referendum on me and us as a movement". "I don't think Trump has done that at all".

And that would be more in line with the Dow has performed, on average, in the year following a midterm election.

Democrats also threaten to recapture governors' offices in several battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and OH, a potential help for the party in those states in the 2020 presidential race.

Trump's minions are counting on enthusiasm about core issues to trigger strong conservative voter turnout that preserves their majorities in Congress.

"They'll do anything and everything they can to impeach him", she said. "That's why our economy is growing like it is".

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, and the Democrats will need to take at least 23 seats from the Republicans to be in control.

Democrats face a far more hard challenge in the Senate, where they are nearly exclusively on defense in rural states where Trump remains popular.

While pollsters and analysts have become more cautious in expressing predictions since Trump's shock 2016 election victory, there was a broad consensus that Democrats will probably win the House, but not the Senate. However, Trump walked away with the victory against all odds. "I feel to a certain extent I have no choice, but maybe I do and maybe I could have been softer from that standpoint".