International Monetary Fund projects India growth at 7.3% in 2018

  • International Monetary Fund projects India growth at 7.3% in 2018

International Monetary Fund projects India growth at 7.3% in 2018

"Historically, Pakistan has achieved 3 to 3.5 percent growth rate in the first two to three years whenever we availed the International Monetary Fund program", Aslam said, adding: "It would be a big achievement if we maintain growth at 3.5 percent". It was the first downgrade since July 2016. Not only have some downside risks that the WEO identified been realised, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.

Economists now say the chances of a recession in the United States are growing due to several factors, including trade tensions and mounting interest rates.

"There are clouds on the horizon".

The eurozone's 2018 growth forecast was cut to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent previously, with Germany particularly hard hit by a drop in manufacturing orders and trade volumes.

"As a result, estimates of 2017 public debt vary considerably: the official government debt figure is 37 percent of GDP, while the data reported in the latest World Economic Outlook show it at 47 percent of GDP, and the "augmented" debt measure, which includes more off budget borrowing by local governments, stands at 68 percent of GDP", he said.

The IMF issues the report ahead of the Annual IMF and World Bank meetings where world leaders, finance ministers and nongovernmental organizations will gather this week in Bali, Indonesia. The Trump administration has penalized almost half of all imports from China and has threatened more for the other half.

Further moves towards a trade war could "significantly harm global growth". South Africa, only 0.8 per cent this year; Angola, contracting by 0.1 per cent this year.

The IMF's warnings will increase fears that the present buoyancy in global growth may not last.

For the next year (FY20), the International Monetary Fund lowered India's growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 7.4 per cent.

Beijing has answered with taxes on $110 billion worth of USA exports.

But it predicts that US growth will slow to 2.5 per cent next year as the effect of recent tax cuts wears off and as US President Donald Trump's trade war with China takes a toll.

IMF's forecasts for Hong Kong's economic outlook are mixed: it raises its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, while cutting its forecast for 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%.

The People's Bank of China announced on Sunday that it would add more liquidity to the economy by cutting the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves at the central bank.

The fund upgraded its forecast for Japan slightly to 1.1 per cent growth this year, up 0.1 point from July. The IMF has lowered the growth projections for both India and China by 0.4 per cent and 0.32 per cent, respectively, from its annual April's WEO.

The IMF said there was a "risk of contagion" as investors became increasingly nervous about the strength of emerging markets, with the risk of capital flows towards the USA accelerating.

Short-term risks to global financial stability have increased "modestly", the Washington-based lender said.

"U.S. tariffs on China, and more broadly on auto and auto part imports, may disrupt established supply chains, especially if met by retaliation", Obstfeld said. "Policymakers must take a long-term perspective to address this malaise".

The IMF added that "fiscal policy should aim to rebuild buffers for the next downturn, and the composition of public spending and revenues should be created to bolster potential output and inclusiveness".