New Jersey Democrats in Strong Position to Flip GOP Districts

  • New Jersey Democrats in Strong Position to Flip GOP Districts

New Jersey Democrats in Strong Position to Flip GOP Districts

The totals represent 25 of the most competitive congressional races across the country, including 23 now held by Republicans, according to a Reuters review of the ratings of three independent political analysis groups: Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

The 19-percentage-point gap in favor of Democrats in New Jersey is significantly wider than the generic House vote edge of nine points in a national poll last month.

Of those certain to vote, the margin is 49 percent to 44 percent, or a five point advantage for Democrats. The new poll found that Democrats could be competitive in the five Republican districts these midterms, with voter preference across those five districts almost evenly split for a generic GOP candidate (46%) compared with the Democrat (44%).

If the result holds in November, it could spell trouble for the five Republican representatives in the state.

In the past two House elections, these five districts were solidly red, averaging a 22-point advantage for Republicans. Because most of the seats are either open or already held by a Republican, the funds raised by Democrats are spread among more candidates vying for their party's nomination.

The insurgence of President Donald Trump, along with congressional Republicans' willingness to support him, have Klarman changing his tune.

By contrast, the aggregate vote in the seven districts controlled by Democrats-59 percent Democrat to 28 percent Republican-is consistent with the average 30-point edge Democrats held in these districts in both 2016 (65 percent to 32 percent) and 2014 (62 percent to 36 percent). Just 34 percent approve of the job Trump is doing, while 61 percent disapprove. Even among residents in the state's five GOP-held congressional districts, Trump's approval rating is only 43 percent, compared with 53 percent who disapprove. Forty-seven percent of these residents expect their federal taxes to go up, the poll found. "That's what makes this plan a particularly tough sell for Republican House candidates here", Murray said. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for the full sample and 3.9 percentage points for registered voters.

An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll conducted April 8-11 - the same time frame as the Post-ABC poll - found a 7-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot for Democrats, down from a 10-point edge in March.